Most signs can be seen in the current debt-to-disposable-income ratios of both economies
Burst housing bubble would be ‘significantly worse’ in Canada than US: economist
Ephraim Vecina
other
Canadian market ‘extremely exposed’ on a relative basis
Based on current trends, a housing bubble burst would be significantly worse in Canada than in the United States, said David Rosenberg, president and chief economist of Rosenberg Research.
The most prominent danger signs can be seen in the current debt-to-disposable-income ratios of both economies, Rosenberg said. While Americans owe approximately $1 to debt for every dollar earned, Canadians owe a staggering $1.65 to debt.
“On a relative basis, Canada is extremely exposed compared to the United States,” Rosenberg stated in a recent research note.
Read more: RBC: Housing market slowdown not stopping any time soon
These factors are being compounded by elevated prices and considerable pressure from the Bank of Canada’s outsized rate hikes.
Data from the Canadian Real Estate Association indicated that as of September, the national non-seasonally adjusted average home price was $640,479.
“There can all be a little doubt that the housing market in Canada is heading into a steep downturn,” Rosenberg warned. “The bubble north of the border is far more acute and will pay a deeper price for the interest-rate hikes that have already been implemented.”
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